Iran: It's getting serious (merged)

[Robert3]

150,000,000 square kilometers of actual land. Each average nuclear device would destroy an actual 100 sq km, maybe a little more. This is actual damage, and most of the bombs are in the thousands of kilotons, not many modern ones are megaton. so 30,000 x 100 = 3,000,000 sq km, or 2% of all land surface. This is my estimate and only shows that we can't destroy the planet. Maybe mess it up a lot, but not destroy the biosphere completely. Fallout would not kill all life.

Yow know, for so long now, I was under the impression that nuclear war was just so much insanity but, gee, I feel much better now. It almost seems as if it's the rational thing to do. And, golly, won't it be exciting?
Btw, when all these nukes go off, do you think they'll be exploding in remote areas?

[/\/\adGamer]

Regardless of your home science calculations cat face the FACT the world as we know it would cease to ever exsist. If you one of the lucky ones you would end up a burnt shadow against a concrete wall. Odds to survive the nuclear winter than nuclear summer that would follow would be tough at best.The oil wells in Iraq that burnt for months spewed toxic crap and enough smoke to drop the temps -10c and effected the eco system for over 200km from the burning wells.Thats nothing compaired to most the worlds cities burning from nuclear bombardment.Even if the land mass wasnt "destroyed" nothing would grow in it for thousands of years.

[Mccordrm]

Yep. Then there's another problem... population. For all the years the nuked land is uninhabitable, the water becomes undrinkable, ect... what happens to those that DO manage to survive. You've got water issues and less land to live on, grow food on, ect.
Governments crumble due to global chaos. You think the shit hit the fan when Katrina hit? You ain't seen nothin'. What the nukes don't manage to kill, the population will take care of. The survivors are not going to come together and start singing Kumbaya... it will be every man for himself and survival of the fittest.

But again... this is assuming that any significant percentage of people make it at all.

[supercat]

you have to remember most of the warhead would be in the northern hemisphere. I realize many of the things you guys are pointing out, however I believe that even in the worst case like when the USSR and US were facing total nuclear war, that many people in the southern hemisphere would have survived. Fallout makes the land uninhabitable, but plant life still grows etc. Fortunately we are not facing those conditions now ie many warheads, but rather a limited exchange. More than likely. Lets hope so anyway.

those calculations were based on data that is easily obtainable on line. I don't use hyperlinks, why should I when anyone can do the math.

[/\/\adGamer]

doesnt matter the whole Earths atmosphere will be so radio active and the effects to the ozone layer would eventually turn our earth into a mars like planet.

[jimzinsocal]

Why does Iran want atomic bombs peaceful energy alternatives

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/m.../ixportal.html

Another good read...for those that doubt the issue

http://www.tnr.com/user/nregi.mhtml?...=kuntzel042406

And some fair points from the American Thinker

Here are a few of Iran’s vulnerabilities.

First, production of a real nuclear weapon will take some time. If Tehran has a running cascade of thousands of uranium centrifuges it might produce a weapon very quickly. Iran has missiles, but these cannot carry the sort of low tech nuclear weapons it migth produce. Publicly available intelligence indicates the moment of real threat is still a few years off. Tehran cannot strike with nuclear weapons for some time.

Second, Israel has a formidable array of nukes, and the means to deliver them accurately. With its three missile-firing subs, it has a second strike capacity that is more than adequate. Even if Iran gets a single nuclear weapon, Israel has an estimated 200, and can produce enough to roast every Mullah in the land many times over. On the defense side, only two updated Patriot batteries may be enough to lower the chances of an Iranian missile attack. But any mad Iranian attack would justify a nuclear response.

Third, the US military have amazing conventional and nuclear capacities, as General McInerney just pointed out. The US 5th Fleet is patrolling the neighborhood, which puts US forces at risk, and on standby to respond instantly. A missile attack on Israel would instantly threaten every other neighboring countries, and indeed European countries as well.

Fourth, a constant flow of oil tankers goes through the Gulf. Every country that needs that oil has a vital stake in US naval protection. Suppliers are just as dependent as buyers. Nobody trusts Tehran to protect the Gulf—- nobody.

Fifth, there are plausible time boundaries to the nuclear threat. It will become real in two or three years, with the first Iranian nuclear weapon. It will rise over subsequent years as Tehran amasses more weapons. And it is likely to decline over a ten to twenty year period, as we have seen with equally frightening regimes during the Cold War.

Today we see China and Russia as deeply invested in international stability. We do not fear a nuclear strike from them, because we know that they know it would be instant suicide. They have become rational actors. We know that many Iranians are quite Westernized. Over time, the modernists may begin to prevail by slow degrees.

The maniacs of Tehran sound profoundly irrational. However, we have dealt with irrational-sounding regimes before, even ones armed with nukes. Early in the Cold War the USSR and Mao’s China used pretty much the same words Ahmadinejad is using today. That doesn’t make the mounting danger easy to tolerate, but it gives us grounds for long-term hope.

Sixth, we know something about Tehran’s strategy behind the provocative language. Amir Taheri has a great depth of knowledge about Tehran; writing in the London Telegraph, he sounds alarmed, as is only sensible. But he believes the mullahs are playing long-term chess, not Russian roulette.

Ahmadinejad is just the latest creature of the mullahs to make nuclear threats—- it goes all the way back to Ayatollah Khomeini, Rafsanjani, and the current Supremo, Khamenei. In reality, in the last 25 years the Iranians have made war by proxy, using terorrist groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, and Islamic Jihad. The mullahs practice patience and long-term strategy. So did Mao Zedong and Khrushchev. We don’t know with complete certainty, but chances are that they will ratchet up the pressure slowly, taking their gains incrementally, rather than in a single suicidal toss of the dice. These people think long-term.

[Enmore]

Why does Iran want atomic bombs peaceful energy alternatives

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/m.../ixportal.html

I was just about to post that. What a bunch of fruit loops they are.

[jimzinsocal]

^^Yeah. Pretty spooky...from the other piece

Here's the opener from that TNR piece. Ahmadinejad was a member of the Basiji and has aligned himself with them:

During the Iran-Iraq War, the Ayatollah Khomeini imported 500,000 small plastic keys from Taiwan. The trinkets were meant to be inspirational. After Iraq invaded in September 1980, it had quickly become clear that Iran's forces were no match for Saddam Hussein's professional, well-armed military. To compensate for their disadvantage, Khomeini sent Iranian children, some as young as twelve years old, to the front lines. There, they marched in formation across minefields toward the enemy, clearing a path with their bodies. Before every mission, one of the Taiwanese keys would be hung around each child's neck. It was supposed to open the gates to paradise for them.

At one point, however, the earthly gore became a matter of concern. "In the past," wrote the semi-official Iranian daily Ettelaat as the war raged on, "we had child-volunteers: 14-, 15-, and 16-year-olds. They went into the minefields. Their eyes saw nothing. Their ears heard nothing. And then, a few moments later, one saw clouds of dust. When the dust had settled again, there was nothing more to be seen of them. Somewhere, widely scattered in the landscape, there lay scraps of burnt flesh and pieces of bone." Such scenes would henceforth be avoided, Ettelaat assured its readers. "Before entering the minefields, the children [now] wrap themselves in blankets and they roll on the ground, so that their body parts stay together after the explosion of the mines and one can carry them to the graves."

These children who rolled to their deaths were part of the Basiji, a mass movement created by Khomeini in 1979 and militarized after the war started in order to supplement his beleaguered army.The Basij Mostazafan--or "mobilization of the oppressed"--was essentially a volunteer militia, most of whose members were not yet 18. They went enthusiastically, and by the thousands, to their own destruction. "The young men cleared the mines with their own bodies," one veteran of the Iran-Iraq War recalled in 2002 to the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine. "It was sometimes like a race. Even without the commander's orders, everyone wanted to be first."

The sacrifice of the Basiji was ghastly. And yet, today, it is a source not of national shame, but of growing pride.

[Orangutan]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basiji

People who believe God is on their side can be very dangerous. It helps that their families receive special compensation for their participation.

[Mccordrm]

The Japanese were like that. Not that it was about God, but Honour... just as important to them. Their kamakazi pilots believed they were bringing much honor on their familiy names by doing what they did.

It is as you said... very dangerous.

[no2guncntrl]

The more this new President of Iran talks, the more others are
getting worried about him and the nuke works. >
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060418/...NlYwMlJVRPUCUl

Bush was asked if his administration was planning for the possibility of a nuclear strike against Iranian nuclear facilities.

"All options are on the table," he said.

Whoa..I wonder if we're not seeing the very
beginnings of a WWIII scenario. Man
these are some crazy times.

[jimzinsocal]

And as we wait for the UN to "do something"

http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7003244379

[Superfly3176]

WTF is Russia selling weapons to Iran for? I thought they were against Iranian nuclear policy. I understand that these aren't "nukes" but it'll make things harder if something does happen in the future.


Edit: NVM just read an article where Russia refused to take sides.


Anyway I don't know who Iran thinks they are but I seriously doubt they have the military to take on Israel. Let alone multiple nations.

[no2guncntrl]

I agree, Jimz. Russia would love to see the U.S get one on the
kisser while also getting access to some much needed oil, even
though they have a lot of their own. I believe a monopoly is
in Ivan's mind along with a lil revenge from the wall coming
down. I don't believe Russia has ever gotten over the scenes
on TV as the one time U.S.S.R was turned upside down while
this was broadcast on international news. I'm also convinced
they didn't appreciate the U.S. helping their opponents during
it's Afghanistan campaign.

Remember Pres Reagan calling the U.S.S.R
the "Evil Empire", and then getting on TV
and shouting, "Mr.President, tear those walls
down" ? Russia has a long memory.

What better way to subtlety slap the face
of the U.S. than to offer "support" for a
Nation simply trying to "better" itself.
Just as Russia hasn't forgotten the Afghan
campaign, nor has the U.S forgotten the
early days of Iran's revolution and the
hostage episode. Old wounds heal slow
when salt is poured in.

The link you provide appears to point to it.

[Mccordrm]

Hmmm....
the planet is only so big, and can therefore only sustain so much life. We had diseases thinning us out, but medicine gets better and the population prospers.

Perhaps it's time for WWIII.