The thing that I don’t understand is the same people can’t accurately predict tomorrow’s weather until tomorrow when they stick their head out of the window and look just like everybody else does. How can they accurately predict what’s going to happen a year or 10 years from now.
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Flip the coin about 500,000 times... tell me with certainty what percent will be heads.
It's easier when you unfocus enough to average out the transient randomness and look at trends.
Note how no-one says that in January 15th 2020 we'll have a hurricane that could be avoidable... they just say we'll likely have extra hurricanes in the next 10 years that could have been avoided.
Predicting immediate weather for specific days, however, is a pretty transient thing. That said, we're able to predict to pretty good accuracy how much rainfall we'll have in a year.
Where do ya get an Algore Hurricane Avoider when ya need one? Arkansas coulda used one today....we'll likely have extra hurricanes in the next 10 years that could have been avoided.
... no it doesn't.
Transient = brief = short-lived
Randomness = unsystematic = unpredictable
Yes... but they can be averaged out to see a predictable trend.
I'll use an analogy:
There's noise in your headphones... sometimes a lot depending on how crummy your headphones are... but you can still hear the audio behind it. Sure, maybe not the position of the driver at any given point in time... but the sound it produces yes.
Even though determining a single data point is difficult, determining a trend may not be.
I mean in some cases it is difficult... obviously. This situation might be... but isn't logically impossible not to be.
You're comparing determining the exact/very reliable value of a point to a very reliable value of a trend. Two wholly different albeit similar in apperance mathematical problems.
Last edited by Phopojijo; 12-31-2010 at 11:54 PM.
Climate studies look at global changes over time and considering how poor measurement techniques were before man invented the thermometer, utilize ways to estimate temps through natural history. Local ground stations are checked with satellite readings since the 70s.On average, a five-day weather forecast of today is as reliable as a two-day weather forecast 20 years ago
Apples and Oranges of the ultimate kind.
"We say in our platform that we believe that the right to coin money and issue money is a function of government....
Those who are opposed to this proposition tell us that the issue of paper money is a function of the bank and that the government ought to go out of the banking business. I stand with Jefferson rather than with them, and tell them, as he did, that the issue of money is a function of the government and that the banks should go out of the governing business."
William Jennings Bryan.
Why are we still calling this the “The Great Global Warming Thread” shouldn’t we be politically correct and call it :
“The Great Global Climate Disruption Thread”
Why is it the far left changes terminology whenever one of their master projects starts taking on water. It doesn’t fool anybody except the extremely stupid.