The Great Global Warming Thread (merged)

[Enmore]

LOL I didn't know that. I just called it 'otoc'.

[Phopojijo]

So you wanted to go to the o-zone Enmore?

[otoc]

So you wanted to go to the o-zone Enmore?

I appreciate you saying "go to" as opposed to "enter", I really do.

[kbohip]

I appreciate you saying "go to" as opposed to "enter", I really do.

[Phopojijo]

He goes in, he goes out, he goes in, he goes out, he's in he coooommeeees outtttttt!!!!

[kbohip]

He goes in, he goes out, he goes in, he goes out, he's in he coooommeeees outtttttt!!!!

LOL.

[otoc]

[Phopojijo]

Scary mess?

[otoc]

Scary mess?

Lol, scary yes. Messy no. At least not at the usual levels around here...

[AeroSim]

So much for Global Warming.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/c...-own-game.html

Do you remember? They said it would be mild and damp, and between one degree and one and a half degrees warmer than average. Well, I am now 46 and that means I have seen more winters than most people on this planet, and I can tell you that this one is a corker.

Never mind the record low attained in Northern Ireland this weekend. I can't remember a time when so much snow has lain so thickly on the ground, and we haven't even reached Christmas. And this is the third tough winter in a row. Is it really true that no one saw this coming?

Actually, they did. Allow me to introduce readers to Piers Corbyn, meteorologist and brother of my old chum, bearded leftie MP Jeremy. Piers Corbyn works in an undistinguished office in Borough High Street. He has no telescope or supercomputer. Armed only with a laptop, huge quantities of publicly available data and a first-class degree in astrophysics, he gets it right again and again.

Back in November, when the Met Office was still doing its "mild winter" schtick, Corbyn said it would be the coldest for 100 years. Indeed, it was back in May that he first predicted a snowy December, and he put his own money on a white Christmas about a month before the Met Office made any such forecast. He said that the Met Office would be wrong about last year's mythical "barbecue summer", and he was vindicated. He was closer to the truth about last winter, too.

He seems to get it right about 85 per cent of the time and serious business people – notably in farming – are starting to invest in his forecasts. In the eyes of many punters, he puts the taxpayer-funded Met Office to shame. How on earth does he do it? He studies the Sun.

He looks at the flow of particles from the Sun, and how they interact with the upper atmosphere, especially air currents such as the jet stream, and he looks at how the Moon and other factors influence those streaming particles.

He takes a snapshot of what the Sun is doing at any given moment, and then he looks back at the record to see when it last did something similar. Then he checks what the weather was like on Earth at the time – and he makes a prophecy.

I have not a clue whether his methods are sound or not. But when so many of his forecasts seem to come true, and when he seems to be so consistently ahead of the Met Office, I feel I want to know more. Piers Corbyn believes that the last three winters could be the harbinger of a mini ice age that could be upon us by 2035, and that it could start to be colder than at any time in the last 200 years. He goes on to speculate that a genuine ice age might then settle in, since an ice age is now cyclically overdue.

What is the source of global warming?

[Frank1946]

[Enmore]

Apparently the Met Office did predict a cold winter, but not the severity that we actually suffered.

However, for fear of ridicule (again) it only told the government, who didn't pass it on. (It would have looked bad while they were trying to pimp up the annual "Hottest Year Evar" spiel just before the Cancun climate conference)

With all their costly supercomputers and hundreds of meteorologists, this was their best guess as to what the Winter would be like:

Met Office Initial Assessment of Risk for Winter 2010/11

This covers the months of November, December and January 2010/11, this will be updated monthly through the winter and so probabilities will change.

Temperature:

3 in 10 chance of a mild start
3 in 10 chance of an average start
4 in 10 chance of a cold start

Precipitation:

3 in 10 chance of a wet start
3 in 10 chance of an average start
4 in 10 chance of a dry start

Summary: There is an increased risk for a cold and wintry start to the winter season.

Looking further ahead beyond this assessment there are some indications of an increased risk of a mild end to the winter season.

With so much fence sitting, their collective arses must have been marked up pretty badly.

[AeroSim]

^^^^
Piers has a theoryworking hypothesis.

[AMDScooter]

ROTFLMAO!!! The BBC is a scam. So says one person putting out a book. I googled him and wow, the topics of his dissatisfaction with a network I don't watch is far reaching. Better watch out Enmore, the length of your post might bring out the comments of pontification by some here.

Meanwhile back to science, an updated and honest look at IPCC models compared to actuals....

2010 updates to model-data comparisons

And scoot, don't bother expending energy. I accept your position that you will ignore any blog that isn't on your faith list. I guess your response would be that models aren't 100% accurate.

But hey, then you would agree with the scientists....

BUHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAH!

Dude.. you talk about "honest" science then plaster up realclimate links pimping IPCC reports?? Hey.. where'd the hockey stick go??

So to conclude, global warming continues. Did you really think it wouldn’t?

Of course there was no doubt Gavin. It's well been documented how your "team" will do just about anything to the numbers to achieve a predetermined outcome.

The PAST is Not What it Used to Be (GW Tiger Tale)



Maybe we should simply go back and look at the raw data. Oh.. never mind.. it got tossed..

Climate change data dumped

. . .

In a statement on its website, the CRU said: “We do not hold the original raw data but only the value-added (quality controlled and homogenised) data.”
. . .

Funny coincidence that eh? Climategate emails show your cult leaders conspiring to hide & destroy data rather than disclose it to FOI's. Then "poof".. all the raw data is gone leaving us with only your cults "value-added" crap. I've made my case and you cannot seem to find time to put the climategate emails you claim were "cherry picked" into any context that makes them read any different than how they read.

Bottom line is this. No matter how hard you try, the goings on of your cult will never be mistaken as "science" by anyone with an ounce of scientific creditability. Plotting to hide, delete and manipulate data. Denigrate scientists presenting different views. Force journals to publish only papers promoting climate alarm. Subvert "peer review" into "pal review".

Harold Lewis’ Scathing Resignation Letter From The APS

. . .
It is of course, the global warming scam, with the (literally) trillions of dollars driving it, that has corrupted so many scientists, and has carried APS before it like a rogue wave. It is the greatest and most successful pseudoscientific fraud I have seen in my long life as a physicist. Anyone who has the faintest doubt that this is so should force himself to read the ClimateGate documents, which lay it bare. (Montford’s book organizes the facts very well.) I don’t believe that any real physicist, nay scientist, can read that stuff without revulsion. I would almost make that revulsion a definition of the word scientist.

So what has the APS, as an organization, done in the face of this challenge? It has accepted the corruption as the norm, and gone along with it. For example:

. . .

The corruption spread through governments, universities, scientific societies & journals by your cult should have your cult's leaders in front of a judge and jury. You hide behind your "name me one agency... " claptrap the same way you and your cult hide behind the "peer review" smokescreen. As the evidence I've laid out in this thread and proved true by the climategate emails show.. your cult has invalidated both.

I will have to simply wait till either your cults leaders get hauled off to do the hard time they deserve -or- people tire of your alarmist cult so we can get back to pursuing real science and tackle real problems.

[AMDScooter]

Apparently the Met Office did predict a cold winter, but not the severity that we actually suffered.

However, for fear of ridicule (again) it only told the government, who didn't pass it on. (It would have looked bad while they were trying to pimp up the annual "Hottest Year Evar" spiel just before the Cancun climate conference)

With all their costly supercomputers and hundreds of meteorologists, this was their best guess as to what the Winter would be like:



With so much fence sitting, their collective arses must have been marked up pretty badly.

Ya... about the predictive abilities of our sooper-dooper-coompooter + all our staff.



What sort of forecast does the Met Office Supercomputer make?

The cure of course is they are gonna need more $$$... and prolly a newer oober-sooper-dooper-coompooter.