Economic News/Discussion

[jimzinsocal]

^^very true.

The comment in the original post about China? No matter how its spun it = investment.[1]
I think the media makes way too much over trade deficits....and certainly misunderstands any significance.

If anything sinks the Economy? It will be negative attitudes that keep folks from spending/investing. Or perhaps overly aggressive
tax increases/corporate crucifictions etc
like the dems have in mind.
IMO

[1] http://www.freetrade.org/node/61

http://www.cato.org/dailys/02-21-01.html


Savings - Investment = Exports - Imports


Thus, a nation that saves more than it invests, such as Japan, will export its excess savings in the form of net foreign investment. In other words, it must run a capital account deficit. The money sent abroad as investment will return to the country to purchase exports in excess of what the country imports, creating a corresponding trade surplus. A nation that invests more than it saves--the United States, for example--must import capital from abroad. In other words, it must run a capital account surplus. The imported capital allows the nation's citizens to consume more goods and services than they produce, importing the difference through a trade deficit.

[Dutchcedar]

falcon, if you could point to some questionable moves by Greenspan, you might have a point. But the frequency of visits to the Oval Office? C'mon man, that could be as simple as Bushy wanting face time.

[falcon_view]

[1] http://www.freetrade.org/node/61

http://www.cato.org/dailys/02-21-01.html


Savings - Investment = Exports - Imports


Thus, a nation that saves more than it invests, such as Japan, will export its excess savings in the form of net foreign investment. In other words, it must run a capital account deficit. The money sent abroad as investment will return to the country to purchase exports in excess of what the country imports, creating a corresponding trade surplus. A nation that invests more than it saves--the United States, for example--must import capital from abroad. In other words, it must run a capital account surplus. The imported capital allows the nation's citizens to consume more goods and services than they produce, importing the difference through a trade deficit.

I hope they are 110% right.

[jimzinsocal]

I hope they are 110% right.

They are. I think there is alot of misunderstanding with trade deficits....and certainly the media is more than happy to paint things black....particularly when they are hell bent on finding something negative to say/imply about Bush.
Wed be in real difficulty if we started listening to the protectionist types and the old school mercantilists.

[falcon_view]

falcon, if you could point to some questionable moves by Greenspan, you might have a point. But the frequency of visits to the Oval Office? C'mon man, that could be as simple as Bushy wanting face time.

Agree. But take a man like Greenspan to turn without any reason or explanation make me wonder.

After the market went down when the dot com blow up and 9/11 how else could this country recover with out a huge infusion of cash and what would that entail down the road.

The first half I understand but what is coming next. We have seen what cheap credit has done for the housing market and to those thinking they could make a quick buck at the top of the bubble by flipping properties that are now caught between a rock and hard place. I seen this in the early 80s when I made some very good money to fix up foreclosed properties to sell. Not in my wildest deams did I think it would happen again this soon. This is a market for those who have cash in hand and I am all too willing to take advanage if it. I don't think we have seen the bottom of it yet.

[Dutchcedar]

Why is this thread so wide?

[jimzinsocal]

Well? About Greenspan? I wasnt there but Ill bet there was some heavy consulting going on..."were thinking about doing this...run it thru your brain trust of experts and let us know the result"

Im not doom and gloom on housing yet. Sure we see spikes and indicators but Im certain over time the net result will be a healthy positive.
I talked about it way back in Rolleyes where I explained...based on some good studies that were not seeing individual home buyers suffering because of price [average unit price] how can a buyer complain?
But rather its the investor type. The guys that paid X and now are stuck
in a declining market. Tough shit. You play and you pay.
No more than I grieve for someone who paid top dollar for a stock
and is singing the blues.
Thats what investment is. An element of risk.

[jimzinsocal]

^^because of the initial post...its stretched for some reason

[jimzinsocal]

Also Falcon...be very wary when you read stats on housing.
The media is apt to report: Housing takes a hit in value or some nonsense[implying everyone's house has lost value].
The actual statistic represents the average price of the houses sold.
And thats a different thing alltogether.

http://forums.pcper.com/showpost.php...ostcount=10413

http://forums.pcper.com/showpost.php...postcount=6327

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...toryId=5751591

[falcon_view]

The media is apt to report: Housing takes a hit in value or some nonsense[implying everyone's house has lost value].

I don't think they imply that everyone's house has lost value. I have seen many reports of the hot markets that has turned south while others have not seen any effect of the subprime problem and lost value. At present the speculators are the ones being shook out but if money gets tighter more will fall.

What is the FED going to do if inflation heats up. Remember this economy has been fueled by cash pumped out by the FED. Has it been too much or right on target? Wall street is very sensitive to a rate increase.

What I am warning people about is to be very careful of what you do here in the short term. Don't bit off more than you can chew if there is a down turn as was seen in the early 80s. As I stated in my first post---Does the FED know how to keep this economy from a melt down. For now be prepared and don't get too deep. Not getting to deep is always good advice by not spending too much on interest. I have made and saved a lot of money on those that have got over their heads in debt.

Maybe it is me looking for a down turn because I know that I can come out the other end better than going in. Every day I look for what is going up and what is going down and how I can take advantage of it.

[jimzinsocal]

I don't think they imply that everyone's house has lost value. I have seen many reports of the hot markets that has turned south while others have not seen any effect of the subprime problem and lost value. At present the speculators are the ones being shook out but if money gets tighter more will fall.

What is the FED going to do if inflation heats up. Remember this economy has been fueled by cash pumped out by the FED. Has it been too much or right on target? Wall street is very sensitive to a rate increase.

What I am warning people about is to be very careful of what you do here in the short term. Don't bit off more than you can chew if there is a down turn as was seen in the early 80s. As I stated in my first post---Does the FED know how to keep this economy from a melt down. For now be prepared and don't get too deep. Not getting to deep is always good advice by not spending too much on interest. I have made and saved a lot of money on those that have got over their heads in debt.

Maybe it is me looking for a down turn because I know that I can come out the other end better than going in. Every day I look for what is going up and what is going down and how I can take advanage of it.

Sure the Fed can help with inflation. And particularly with the current Chairman. Inflation is his deal. Inflation heats up and look for a rate hike.

And you are right to look hard at things and suggest people dont get too deep. That goes without saying. But some people will get stuck...thats unavoidable so long as we have economic freedoms.
As you might guess? Im a liduidity advocate. I dont service any debt.
Just a concious choice on my part. Im also a target investor when I do buy. I dont get married to any investment and when I hit the target Im out faster than I got in....with what I expected out of the deal.

[jimzinsocal]

And hey Falcon? Good talk. Lets do it piece by piece.
I couldnt respond to all that you mentioned...just a few things at a time.
But I love this stuff. When we get to reasoning back and forth.

[falcon_view]

Around here you would think that the housing market has been untouched by the bubble. With a quick over view everything is fine. This is one area where if you want to know what is going on don't ask the realtors. Talk to those that handle foreclosers and lumber companies. In the first months of 2005 the number of one said that his forclosers had more than doubled and lumber going out the door was way down. This area never seen the heat of other hot areas. So even looking at any reports about housing slow down you have to dig deeper. As we talked about the speculators that is not the case for around here, it is those that want a bigger or first home and the subprime bit hard. For now the market can absorb these houses but for how long and how many more are out there. Prices have dropped a little for the higher end houses but not enough to get excited about.

[falcon_view]

This is one scary chart. You have to scroll down to find the chart. I have not read all what the author wrote and don't care to, just wanted to see the chart. Found it on a stock message board on yahoo. If the chart is even close it is not good looking forward.

http://itulip.com/forums/showthread....2224#post12224


Discliamer---Even with this it is not enough at this time for me to do anything out of the ordinary because all of my adult life I have been very hard core conservative when it come to money. I did splurge a little on this computer.

Hope that keeps scooter off my back.

[BY97]

Since Bush became US President, gas prices have tripled. That's enough for me.