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  1. #8881
    Joined
    Aug 2001
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    74,682

    Re: Economic News/Discussion

    SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

    In the week ending September 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 382,000, an increase of 15,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 367,000. The 4-week moving average was 375,000, an increase of 3,250 from the previous week's revised average of 371,750.
    The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.6 percent for the week ending September 1, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending September 1 was 3,283,000, a decrease of 49,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,332,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,316,500, a decrease of 7,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,324,000.

  2. #8882
    Joined
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    Twain Harte, CA
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    Re: Economic News/Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by jimzinsocal View Post
    [B]SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

    Its all due to hurricane tropical storm Isaac.


  3. #8883
    Joined
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    Re: Economic News/Discussion

    ^^I saw that note but you know? It certainly doesnt seem to be the case in the actual/not seasonally adjusted numbers. Ordinarily this would indicate pretty good improvement

    The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 297,402 in the week ending September 8, a decrease of 12,058 from the previous week. There were 328,868 initial claims in the comparable week in 2011.

    So what I assume happened was..typical delays in current specific info necessitated a healthy seasonal adjustment as well as recognition of the Labor Day holiday

  4. #8884
    Joined
    Mar 2003
    Location
    Oregon
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    40
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    6,498

    Re: Economic News/Discussion

    Hey jimz, nobody ever says it, but thanks for posting this stuff. I rarely comment on it but I often read it, and its usually better reading your explanations than some douche from the media.

    Cheers

  5. #8885
    Joined
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    Posts
    74,682

    Re: Economic News/Discussion

    ^^anytime. For me its a puzzle really to find some relationship to the weekly numbers and what gets reported. And what the folks attempt at BLS cant be an easy chore.

  6. #8886
    Joined
    Mar 2002
    Location
    California
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    26,285

    Re: Economic News/Discussion

    The economy is sh*t.. no way anyone objectively looking at the numbers can say we're even in a recovery with a straight face. We are not even creating nuff jobs to keep up with the population growth.

    Does this look like an economy that’s moving forward? 9 reasons why it really doesn’t



    I would like to believe the U.S. economy is firmly back on track and headed toward renewed prosperity. A slow track, to be sure, but at least things are moving forward. That would be something, at least.

    Except the data show a recovery in reverse, headed the wrong way.

    1. More jobs were created per month last year than this year (and pitifully few in both years). Since the start of the year, job growth has averaged 139,000 per month vs. an average monthly gain of 153,000 in 2011. At this year’s pace, it will take 11 years to bring the unemployment rate back down to 5%.

    2. Back in 2009, the incoming Obama administration predicted sub-6% unemployment in 2012 if Congress passed the $800 billion stimulus plan. Instead, we’ve had 43 straight months of 8%-plus unemployment. And that high level of sustained joblessness is likely contributing to a deterioration in the U.S. labor force and higher structural unemployment.

    3. The labor force participation rate is lower today than at the start of the year, and lower than at the start of 2011. Yes, the economy has created private-sector jobs every month for the past 30 months, since February 2010. But during that span, labor force participation has continued to drop. If the participation rate were the same today as it was in February 2010, when the job market supposedly bottomed, the unemployment rate would be 10.1%.

    4. The unemployment-population ratio, which looks at what portion of the working-age population has a job, is also lower today than it was at the start of the year and seems dead in the water:



    As JPMorgan economist Michael Feroli argues:

    The more comprehensive employment-to-population ratio ticked down to 58.3%; this measure is a mere 0.1% above its cycle trough, indicating that once one takes account of population growth there has been essentially no progress in repairing the labor market after the recent downturn.
    5. Average hourly earnings were unchanged in the August jobs report, and are up just 1.7% over the past year. Not only does that match the slowest pace on record, but one you account for inflation, wages are flat to down.



    6. Last year, the economy, adjusted for inflation, grew by 1.8%. Right now, it’s on track to do about the same this year. Another year of sub-normal growth, below 3%, means the output gap between where GDP is and where it should be (if the economy were growing merely at trend) continues to grow. If GDP growth in 2011 and 2012 were 3% and not a bit less than 2%, the economy would be $350 billion bigger in 2013 than where it is headed to be.



    7. The American economy is less competitive than it was last year or the year before, according to the latest competitiveness report from the World Economic Forum: ”The United States continues the decline that began a few years ago, falling 2 more positions to take 7th place this year.”

    The United States now ranks 7th in the WEF rankings out of 144 nations vs. 5th in 2011, 4th in 2010, and number 1 in 2008. Two growing problems: a) wasteful and ineffective government and b) crony capitalism.

    8. The day of fiscal reckoning grows ever nearer as the national debt grows, and Washington fails to constrain out-of-control entitlement spending. Indeed, some economists think the debt is already slowing growth.



    9. Growth is so slow right now that if anything goes wrong, we are likely to slip back into recession and problems 1-8 above get even worse.



    America is not stuck in a sluggish or disappointing economic recovery. It’s in the middle of an economic emergency with more trouble on the way. And it’s time for Washington to start acting like it.
    "The most dangerous myth is the demagoguery that business can be made to pay a larger share, thus relieving the individual. Politicians preaching this are either deliberately dishonest, or economically illiterate, and either one should scare us...
    Only people pay taxes, and people pay as consumers every tax that is assessed against a business."


    -The Gipper


  7. #8887
    Joined
    Aug 2001
    Posts
    74,682

    Re: Economic News/Discussion

    For me the third chart really says it all. Actual V Potential GDP.
    The Administration can spin the unemployment numbers all it likes but the proof of policy and employment finds its way to GDP.
    They can go on and on about the stimulus or how unemployment checks are stimulating but ultimate expression is found in GDP.
    We will be lucky to see 1.7 for the last of 2012.
    As I mentioned last week...when you look at that particular chart..the space between the two lines no matter how we spin is about = to unemployment.

  8. #8888
    Joined
    Mar 2002
    Location
    California
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    26,285

    Re: Economic News/Discussion

    "Headed in the right direction..." downgraded again.

    Egan-Jones downgrades U.S. rating on QE3 move

    SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Egan-Jones Ratings Co. said Friday it downgraded its U.S. sovereign rating to AA- from AA on concerns that the Fed's new round of quantitative easing, or QE3, will hurt the U.S. economy. The ratings agency said the Fed's plan of buying $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities a month and keeping interest rates near zero does little to raise GDP, reduces the value of the dollar, and raises the price of commodities. "From 2006 to present, the US's debt to GDP rose from 66% to 104% and will probably rise to 110% a year from today under current circumstances; the annual budget deficit is 8%," Egan-Jones said in a note. "In comparison, Spain has a debt to GDP of 68.5% and an annual budget deficit of 8.5%."
    "The most dangerous myth is the demagoguery that business can be made to pay a larger share, thus relieving the individual. Politicians preaching this are either deliberately dishonest, or economically illiterate, and either one should scare us...
    Only people pay taxes, and people pay as consumers every tax that is assessed against a business."


    -The Gipper


  9. #8889
    Joined
    May 2002
    Location
    A Little South of Sanity
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    12,925

    Re: Economic News/Discussion

    ^ Quantitative Easing" another way of saying they have now eliminated the "Middle Man" and the Gevernment now owns the Junk Bonds - at least it will simplify the process when they go bust - no need for Bailouts in the Private Sector - the Taxpayers eat it upfront now.

  10. #8890
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    Twain Harte, CA
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    Re: Economic News/Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by SteveW View Post
    ^ Quantitative Easing" another way of saying they have now eliminated the "Middle Man" and the Gevernment now owns the Junk Bonds - at least it will simplify the process when they go bust - no need for Bailouts in the Private Sector - the Taxpayers eat it upfront now.
    This stuff is way over my head, but isn't quantitative easing essentially the printing of money and putting it in one group's hand at the expense of everyone else's money becoming worth less than before?

    It seems that every time this happens, the stock market climbs in value and the price of other things go up as well.

    I should have stayed awake in those macro-economics classes.

  11. #8891
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    Re: Economic News/Discussion

    ^ Seems it's basically induced inflation.

  12. #8892
    Joined
    Sep 2003
    Location
    Kern River Valley, CA
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    71
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    21,614

    Re: Economic News/Discussion

    ^^^ I think I have a migraine…

  13. #8893
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    Re: Economic News/Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by SteveW View Post
    ^ Seems it's basically induced inflation.
    Hitler did the same thing... and yeah, I know about Godwin's law.

    I bring it up because as a kid, having come from Rotterdam and having parents that were deeply involved in the Dutch underground, was told many stories about times in Nazi occupied Holland. Some that stood out were about how Hitler used the printing of lots of money to solve his country's problems. That didn't end well either.

    I'd use a different example, surely there are many out there, but none that I'm as well schooled in.

    This kind of solution is gonna end up screwin' us to the enth degree.

  14. #8894
    Joined
    May 2002
    Location
    A Little South of Sanity
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    12,925

    Re: Economic News/Discussion

    Well gents, if lowering the interest rate fails to work, for 4+ years, we're somewhat hosed. Now they're acting out of desparation.

    Buying housing bonds by the billions and billions. Lowering the prime. Here's a concept - refinance the national debt at 0.5% interest or even 0% interest.

    Problem solved.

    Oh, you mean Obama won't let that happen to his buddies that hold the purse strings to both him and this country...

  15. #8895
    Joined
    Aug 2010
    Location
    Milwaukee, Wisconsin
    Posts
    6,027

    Re: Economic News/Discussion

    Why does the Federal Reserve need to do unlimited quantitative easing if the economy is as good as Obama and lefties say it is?

    #ThinkAboutIt

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