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  1. #46
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    Re: The Democratic Race To November

    C Wiz. I guess my thinking went like this...so far as two threads.

    Dems and Repubs each have a thread where they defend or ask stuff to be defended.
    It was getting to mixed in the Super Tuesday thread...hard to follow.

    So I figured each has a place to advance or defend questions from the other party guys.

    But lets see how it goes.

  2. #47
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    Re: The Democratic Race To November

    The states that matter

    by kos

    Mon Feb 11, 2008 at 09:17:58 AM PST

    This post was inspired by a comment I read earlier yesterday, which I can't find now, so apologies for the unsourced inspiration.
    One of the hilarious side-effects of every Obama victory is the spin from Clinton quarters and its surrogates and supporters explaining why said victories "don't matter".
    Iowa didn't matter because it was a caucus state, and it's undemocratic. Same goes for every other caucus state including Maine. The only caucus state that mattered was Nevada.
    Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, Alaska, and Utah don't matter because they're small Red states that Democrats won't carry in November.
    Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and Louisiana don't matter because they have black people. Expect the same spin out of DC this Tuesday. Black people don't apparently count.
    Washington and Minnesota don't matter because they have educated white people.
    In any case, Washington, Nebraska, and Louisiana didn't matter on Saturday because everyone expected Obama to win them anyway.
    Virginia and Maryland, assuming they're won by Obama, will be a combination of the "black people" and "educated people" rationalizations. Throw a little of "Obama was expected to win anyway", and you've got the trifecta.
    Illinois doesn't matter because that's Obama's home state. Expect the same spin when Obama wins Hawaii by double-digit margins in two weeks.
    Missouri doesn't matter because Clinton sent out a press release claiming she won it.
    Colorado was a caucus state, so that leaves Delaware and Connecticut. Those are the only two states that apparently matter, giving Hillary Clinton a commanding 10-2 lead among states that matter.
    One final line of attack used to minimize Obama's victories is the notion that "he can't win states without his base", his base of course being African Americans, white yuppies, and Red state Democrats. Yet the corollary of that is what? That Hillary can't win states that
    1.) she hasn't lived in recently (New York and Arkansas),
    2.) aren't next to states she has lived in (Tennessee, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Oklahoma),
    3.) don't share a media market with states she has lived in (New Hampshire), or
    4.) are outside the Southwest with its large Latino population (California, which she won with the strength of her SoCal vote, Arizona, Nevada and probably New Mexico).
    Pretty silly game, huh?
    Incidentally, if these stupid generalizations were to actually hold true the rest of this primary, the states would fall like this:
    Clinton: Texas, Rhode Island, Vermont, Pennsylvania.
    Obama: Virginia, DC, Maryland, Hawaii, Wisconsin, Wyoming, Mississippi, Indiana, North Carolina, Oregon, Montana, South Dakota.
    Neither: Ohio, West Virginia, Kentucky

    But that's not what the final tally will look like.
    p.s. Interestingly enough, other than New Mexico, the only other razor-thin contest thus far was Missouri -- a state which borders both Illinois and Arkansas. So in the battle of "neighboring state contest", Obama won, but only by a hair, and only because the Illinois-Missouri border is longer than the Arkansas-Missouri one.
    Update: Good diary with a similar concept here.
    Update II: Trix tallies which states "matter" in terms of giving one candidate or another the biggest delegate boosts. Lots of fun ways to parse this data.

  3. #48
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    Re: The Democratic Race To November

    And the Clinton's take umbrage around the "pimp" reference?

    Give it a rest.

    UPDATE: Of course, she might ruin the meal by complaining about her hedge fund's health coverage. But probably not.

    WANT TO DINE WITH CHELSEA? Bill will set it up, if you're a superdelegate.
    posted at 03:24 PM by Glenn Reynolds
    Last edited by jimzinsocal; 02-11-2008 at 03:39 PM.

  4. #49
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    Re: The Democratic Race To November

    Yeah. OK. And you say "Bush Lied"?

    I want the dem guys here to justify this visit to fantasyland:

    http://www.breitbart.com/article.php...show_article=1

    I mean come on. Youve accused Bush of lying for all these years.
    Tell me she is being truthful.
    Or do you have a new definition for "lie" now?
    "I did not have sexual relations with that women"

    Come on. Lets see a defense.


    Explain this:

    "I'm still ahead in the popular vote and in delegates," Clinton said.

    Why cant I say thats a boldfaced lie?

    Explain it. Like Im a 4 year old.
    Last edited by jimzinsocal; 02-11-2008 at 03:58 PM.

  5. #50
    Joined
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    Location
    California
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    26,280

    Re: The Democratic Race To November

    Quote Originally Posted by jimzinsocal View Post
    Come on. Lets see a defense.
    Which do you want... crocodile tears or a coughing fit?
    "The most dangerous myth is the demagoguery that business can be made to pay a larger share, thus relieving the individual. Politicians preaching this are either deliberately dishonest, or economically illiterate, and either one should scare us...
    Only people pay taxes, and people pay as consumers every tax that is assessed against a business."


    -The Gipper


  6. #51
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    Re: The Democratic Race To November

    Quote Originally Posted by jimzinsocal View Post
    Yeah. OK. And you say "Bush Lied"?

    I want the dem guys here to justify this visit to fantasyland:

    http://www.breitbart.com/article.php...show_article=1

    I mean come on. Youve accused Bush of lying for all these years.
    Tell me she is being truthful.
    Or do you have a new definition for "lie" now?
    "I did not have sexual relations with that women"

    Come on. Lets see a defense.


    Explain this:

    "I'm still ahead in the popular vote and in delegates," Clinton said.

    Why cant I say thats a boldfaced lie?

    Explain it. Like Im a 4 year old.
    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ate_count.html


    It seems to me? Different people can take data in many ways.
    Calling Yogi Berra. Calling Yogi Berra.

    "This is like deja vu all over again."
    Last edited by jimzinsocal; 02-11-2008 at 04:05 PM.

  7. #52
    Joined
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    Location
    Chicago
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    6,596

    Re: The Democratic Race To November

    Quote Originally Posted by jimzinsocal View Post

    Explain it. Like Im a 4 year old.

    It's called politics - putting the most optimistic spin on your campaign, regardless of how true it is. Every campaign does it. I don't even know how you link it with bush.

  8. #53
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    Re: The Democratic Race To November

    You dont? I just called Hillary a liar. I think [based on the information have in front of me] she worked the facts to support her position.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ate_count.html

  9. #54
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    Re: The Democratic Race To November

    You understand my point. Wanta sell yourselves as the "tellers of truth"?
    Get to basics.
    Or dont slam others that were in a similar situation.

    Im sure she is basing her assertion on "the best information she has"

    But...

    Delegate CountStateDateDelegates

    Obama 1143
    Clinton 1138

    2,025 Delegates Needed to Win (Delegate Counts Come From AP, Wash Post, CBS News & RCP)

    To coin a phrase? I find this "troubling"

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ate_count.html
    Last edited by jimzinsocal; 02-11-2008 at 05:00 PM.

  10. #55
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    Re: The Democratic Race To November

    ^^Lemme back up abit here.

    First of all that exchange made it seem like I was busting C Wiz balls.
    Im not. If it read that way? Apology.
    I get just as involved as anyone here and I have principle issues
    with Hillary's mamby pampy bull shit response to Obama giving her an ass whoopin over the weekend.

    What my objection is centered on is honesty.

    Dont go telling me you are ahead in the delegate count when I can prove you wrong.

    And dont go defending Hillary simply because she is a democrat.

    IMO she's a weasel like all the others.

    The analogy I was attempting to make is pretty obvious.
    Bush lied.
    But Hillary can twist the truth [based on her information]
    like a pretzel and its fine. Just politics.

    But a Republican doing the same is sent to hell.
    No $200.00. No Get Out Of Jail Free Card....just direct elevator to hell.
    For basically the same "problem"

    And again. Im not a moderator here in this forum.
    Im just like you guys and sometimes I react in
    an "not so moderate" way but it has nothing to do with my job here.

    I know how to separate that stuff later.
    Last edited by jimzinsocal; 02-11-2008 at 05:28 PM.

  11. #56
    Joined
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    1,520

    Re: The Democratic Race To November

    The reason why hillary's going to win is b/c she's a liar and being a liar increases your chances of being a two-term president starting with bill clinton.
    Last edited by vote ron paul; 02-11-2008 at 05:44 PM.

  12. #57
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    Re: The Democratic Race To November

    NEW: Preliminary Virginia Poll has Obama and McCain with Sizable Leads: Huckabee Surges




    Eve of VA Democratic Primary 2/11/08: No Late Charge from Clinton; Obama Will Get Larger Share of Delegates: 24 hours till votes are counted in the Virginia Democratic Primary, Barack Obama is positioned to capture a majority of convention delegates, according to SurveyUSA's final pre-primary poll, conducted for WJLA-TV Washington DC, WDBJ-TV Roanoke and WTVR-TV Richmond. Today it's Obama 60%, Clinton 38%, not materially different from a SurveyUSA tracking poll released 72 hours ago, which showed Obama 59%, Clinton 39%. Voters in the DC suburbs moved to Obama over the weekend, increasing his advantage there. Voters in the Shenandoah moved to Clinton over the weekend, increasing her advantage there. The movement was offsetting. Obama held his ground among voters under age 50, and gained ground among voters age 50+. Among voters age 65+, Clinton had led by 5 on Friday, now less.
    CLICK HERE - to see the numbers from Friday 2/8/08.


    I dont think Hillary is gonna do well in VA
    More wee wee pants for her and another fabricated spin


  13. #58
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    Re: The Democratic Race To November

    ^^IMO? She's running out of superdelegates that can cloud the truth. She is losing to Obama.

    copy/Cobra

    Look. The tide is even turning at [Hillary and Bill's CNN]

    Without superdelegates, Clinton trails Obama
    Last edited by jimzinsocal; 02-11-2008 at 05:53 PM.

  14. #59
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    Twain Harte, CA
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    20,453

    Re: The Democratic Race To November

    ^^^ I'll predict that Clinton will have a number of super delegates side with her equivalent to the amount of delegates she loses by in Virginia, and possibly a couple more.

    You heard it here folks... mark your calenders.

    From the same guy who picked the Patriots by 10.

    I did choose Junior to win the Bud Shootout... but that was purely based on emotion.

    edit: Which one can promise the Breck girl the most in exchange for his 28?
    Last edited by Dutchcedar; 02-11-2008 at 06:44 PM.

  15. #60
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    Location
    Chicago
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    6,596

    Re: The Democratic Race To November

    Quote Originally Posted by jimzinsocal View Post
    You dont? I just called Hillary a liar. I think [based on the information have in front of me] she worked the facts to support her position.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ate_count.html
    All I'm saying is that if you expect a political candidate to be truthful about their bleak position in an election, you're expecting something that's pretty much unprecedented. (as long as there's still a small chance of winning) Would you back, or donate to a candidate who admitted that they were in a poor spot to win?

    And dont go defending Hillary simply because she is a democrat.
    I have no qualms about bashing Clinton at all, she's not my favorite figure in politics at all. I'll cringe if she gets the nomination, I'm just saying during a political campaign, distortions are common place.

    The analogy I was attempting to make is pretty obvious.
    Bush lied.
    But Hillary can twist the truth [based on her information]
    like a pretzel and its fine. Just politics.
    I think there's a pretty substantial distinction between distorting your position in a heated, political campaign. Then a sitting president fabricating information that led us to war.
    Last edited by Computerwiz; 02-11-2008 at 10:05 PM.

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