The 2012 Election Thread

[otoc]

Have you "not seen" the RCP average that show bamma losing by 5 points to "generic repuggie"?
Have you "not seen" bamma's poll numbers are in the basement?
Have you "not seen" the special election results last night that voters in NY said were a referendum on Bamma's policies?
Have you "not seen" the congressional polls that are really bad...yet voters still favor repuggie congresscritters by 10 points?
I could go on... but evidently you don't see much.

Something is missing... all the supporting evidence for your opinion that the "only" candidate that "stands a chance" of beating the SCOAMF is Romney.

Scooter, a generic candidate means nothing compared to the current candidates. Your proof...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...andidates.html

[bk94si]

The only recent "poll" that really counts if the NY house seat that has a Republican for the first time in 100 years.

And Nevada.

[AMDScooter]

Scooter, a generic candidate means nothing compared to the current candidates. Your proof...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...andidates.html

Generic has more weight that you care to admit. None of the information there fits your "Romney is the only one who has a chance of defeating Obama" opinion.

General Election: Republican vs. Obama =Republican +0.5

General Election: Perry vs. Obama = Perry wins in 2 polls
General Election: Romney vs. Obama = Romney wins in 3 polls.

After the primaries are over.. if it is Perry or Romney. Do you think people who would have voted for either of them would instead vote for Obama? I think not.. not by a longshot. Bamma's own supporters along with a lot of independents are leaving him. Bamma is in deep poopey and it's only going to get deeper.

[AMDScooter]

Demorat strategists encouraging candidates not to run next year. They don’t want to see them lose by 12 to 15 points because of Bamma! if they are saying that to potential congresscritters... one can only imagine how bad Bamma is gonna get worked.

Republicans win Weiner’s seat

Republican Bob Turner won former Rep. Anthony Weiner's (D-N.Y.) House seat on Tuesday, a bad sign for President Obama and down-ticket Democrats heading into next year’s election.

Turner was leading Democrat David Weprin by 54 percent to 46 percent with 81 percent of precincts reporting right before midnight eastern time. The Associated Press has called the race.

Democrats have held Weiner’s district since 1923, and it was Sen. Charles Schumer’s (D-N.Y.) seat before he ran for the Senate. Obama will shoulder some blame for the loss, which comes at a pivotal time for the president as he pushes Congress to pass a jobs bill that will likely be a major part of his reelection campaign.

National Republican Congressional Campaign Chairman Pete Sessions (R-Texas) put out a statement immediately after the race was called, blaming Obama for the loss.

"This clear rebuke of President Obama’s policies delivers a blow to Democrats’ goal of making Nancy Pelosi the Speaker again. New Yorkers put Washington Democrats on notice that voters are losing confidence in a President whose policies assault job-creators and affront Israel. An unpopular President Obama is now a liability for Democrats nationwide in a 2012 election that is a referendum on his economic policies," he said.

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel (N.Y.) though dismissed suggestions the loss was a troubling sign for Democrats in 2012.

"The results in NY-09 are not reflective of what will happen in November 2012 when Democratic challengers run against Republican incumbents who voted to end Medicare and cut Social Security while protecting tax loopholes for big corporations and the ultra wealthy," wrote Israel in a statement.

“Special Elections are always difficult – they are low turnout, high intensity races,” he said.

The NRCC also put out a statement from House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.), the only Jewish Republican serving in the House.

Cantor criticized Obama's Middle East policies, which was a huge issue in the largely Orthodox Jewish district.

Turner "understands the special relationship that America has with our friend Israel. His victory tonight is an indicator that the Middle East policy pursued by the Obama Administration does not sit well with the many people who care deeply about the U.S./Israel relationship," Cantor said.

Polling leading up to the race indicated Obama was dragging down the Democratic candidate. Democratic pollster Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling said that a Turner win would be “largely due to the incredible unpopularity of Barack Obama dragging his party down in the district” after PPP’s polling found Obama with just 31 percent approval in a district he won with 55 percent of the vote in 2008.

A Democratic strategist said Obama has become such a problem for down-ticket Democrats that he was wary of encouraging candidates to run next year. “I’m warning my clients — ‘Don’t run in 2012.’ I don’t want to see good candidates lose by 12 to 15 points because of the president,” said the strategist.

National Democrats expected early on that they would have no problems holding the district, even though it has trended Republican over the last decade. But when the race tightened the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee decided to spend $500,000 on television ads in the highly expensive media market, while the Democratic outside group House Majority PAC has spent an additional $100,000. Republicans were badly outspent in the race, but it didn’t matter.

The district’s population, which besides the Orthodox Jewish community contains many Catholics of Irish and Italian descent as well as large populations of Hispanics and Asians, has trended away from the Democratic Party since Sept. 11, 2001, although Weiner had done well there up until his resignation in June. Al Gore won the district with 67 percent of the vote in 2000, but Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) won just 56 percent there in 2004. It had the largest shift towards the GOP from 2000 to 2008 of any district outside of the South.

Democrats, meanwhile, complain the Weprin campaign failed to reach out effectively to the sizeable Asian and Hispanic communities in the district, leaving the electorate whiter and more conservative than it could have been.

But even taking into account some of the Weprin campaign’s weaknesses, the unusual dynamics of a special election, the district’s unusual demographics and drift towards the GOP, for Democrats to lose a district long held by their party should concern them.

The results might point to another trend: a softening in Obama support from the Jewish community, which strongly backed him in 2008. The district has one of the largest Orthodox Jewish populations in the country.

Turner got some early momentum when a prominent state Democrat crossed party lines and endorsed him. Former New York City Mayor Ed Koch (D) sent a message to Obama about his policies toward Israel with his endorsement of the Catholic Turner over Weprin, an Orthodox Jew.

Turner’s win will scramble the state’s redistricting process. New York is losing two seats, and the Democrats and Republicans who share control of the state’s line-drawing process were expected to ax this district as well as a Republican one in the upstate area. But Republicans will be less willing to have two of their districts put on the chopping block.

The Republican win also ended a string of Democratic special-election victories in New York and give the local GOP some payback. Besides Democrat Kathy Hochul’s 2010 win, Democrats Bill Owens and Scott Murphy won open House seats in Republican-leaning districts in 2009, although Murphy went on to lose his reelection campaign in 2010.

A senior Democratic strategist agreed that Obama’s numbers have been worrying down-ticket Democrats, and that a New York special-election loss would heighten their concerns.

“The one thing that’s going to resonate in the echo chamber is the president is really pulling down people’s numbers,” he said. “Democrats are going to start getting a little nervous.”

-- This story was last updated at 6:44 a.m.

[Enmore]

I can't have helped David Weprin that he looks just like Mr Rooney from Ferris Bueller's Day Off:

Mr Rooney:





Mr Weprin (filmed earlier today):

[BlackDragon24]

There's not cognitive dissonance every where you don't happen to understand things, BD. We're all faced with choices, sometimes clear choices, other times not so much.

When the choice was between Romney and McCain, I went with Romney.

When the choice was between McCain and Obambi, I went with McCain.

Those were clear choices, but not perfect choices by any stretch.

And yes, we've gotta get rid of the post turtle. He's the worst president we've had in my time of voting. I thought Jimmy Carter was bad, but Obambi's much worse. Please feel free to continue opining on that opinion... I'm very accustomed to clueless credit card liberals without solutions bandying about their critique.

Yup, I understand completely. Clueless credit card liberals eh? I'll give you points for originality on that one. Libtard and SCOAMF were already getting old.

How about your cognitive dissonance? If you really want someone with the best shot at winning for yourself, why would you vote for Obama? I would press for another candidate to run against whoever gets the nod for the GOP. As things stand, he has no chance of winning no matter who is running against him.

I could think of 5 or 6 people who, if they ran, I would vote for them in a heartbeat over Obama. Not anybody you would like, I'm sure.

But like Dutch said, I have a choice to make

Obama vs. Perry I choose Obama
Obama vs. Romney I choose Obama.

The only republican still in the game that I could consider voting for would be Huntsman, and he's about as popular as hemorrhoids.

[otoc]

Generic has more weight that you care to admit. None of the information there fits your "Romney is the only one who has a chance of defeating Obama" opinion.

General Election: Republican vs. Obama =Republican +0.5

General Election: Perry vs. Obama = Perry wins in 2 polls
General Election: Romney vs. Obama = Romney wins in 3 polls.

After the primaries are over.. if it is Perry or Romney. Do you think people who would have voted for either of them would instead vote for Obama? I think not.. not by a longshot. Bamma's own supporters along with a lot of independents are leaving him. Bamma is in deep poopey and it's only going to get deeper.

Lol, wait a cherry pickin minute there. Selecting individual polls instead of using the rcp running average? What is clear is if the GOP was running a candidate named generic they'd have a .5 % chance of winning. But when you put names to the choice Obama is ahead in every case except for rhomney who comes in behind, but within the spread of polling accuracy. Nice try at cognitive distance to the proof you asked for.

Have a great cherry picking day scoot! Nothing like distancing yourself from the numbers just so you can post a response to rally behind the candidate named generic.

[otoc]

Yup, I understand completely. Clueless credit card liberals eh? I'll give you points for originality on that one. Libtard and SCOAMF were already getting old.



I could think of 5 or 6 people who, if they ran, I would vote for them in a heartbeat over Obama. Not anybody you would like, I'm sure.

But like Dutch said, I have a choice to make

Obama vs. Perry I choose Obama
Obama vs. Romney I choose Obama.

The only republican still in the game that I could consider voting for would be Huntsman, and he's about as popular as hemorrhoids.

Lol, speaking of credit card politicians, didja see how much the last administration added to debt? And how much the GOP still holds onto the lower taxes for millionaires makes for job creation that doesn't happen while the debt doesn't get lowered? It's like a new paradigm where we pay for wars with cuts to social programs, lower taxes, and higher spending for the military. I give up, for the slams of "credit card liberals" is nothing but a diversion away from discussing the topic. The right around here are great at coming up with new names to call people who have a different opinion.

[AMDScooter]

Lol, wait a cherry pickin minute there. Selecting individual polls instead of using the rcp running average? What is clear is if the GOP was running a candidate named generic they'd have a .5 % chance of winning. But when you put names to the choice Obama is ahead in every case except for rhomney who comes in behind, but within the spread of polling accuracy. Nice try at cognitive distance to the proof you asked for.

Have a great cherry picking day scoot! Nothing like distancing yourself from the numbers just so you can post a response to rally behind the candidate named generic.

Geesus.. do you have a reading disorder? Those polls are from the page YOU linked pokey. You are the one who said Romney was the only one who stood a chance. The polls YOU linked don't support that opinion.

[BlackDragon24]

Lol, speaking of credit card politicians, didja see how much the last administration added to debt? And how much the GOP still holds onto the lower taxes for millionaires makes for job creation that doesn't happen while the debt doesn't get lowered? It's like a new paradigm where we pay for wars with cuts to social programs, lower taxes, and higher spending for the military. I give up, for the slams of "credit card liberals" is nothing but a diversion away from discussing the topic. The right around here are great at coming up with new names to call people who have a different opinion.

See you have to understand, deficit spending is OK when you have a president who you like. It's also OK apparently to the tune of about 10 trillion in debt, but once you hit that 12 trillion number and there is a new guy in the WH who you don't like, deficit spending CANNOT and WILL NOT happen. Not unless they can gut medicare. Then they are perfectly fine with deficit spending to the tune of about another 10 trillion. No worries that the poverty levels and income gap are the highest they have been in decades. We need to KEEP giving rich people MORE money and take MORE away from people who NEED assistance. Because that is what Jesus would do.

See my avatar to sum up my thoughts.

[otoc]

Geesus.. do you have a reading disorder? Those polls are from the page YOU linked pokey. You are the one who said Romney was the only one who stood a chance. The polls YOU linked don't support that opinion.

Really? Miss my point about about cherry picking individual polls instead of using the running averages?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...andidates.html

General Election: Republican vs. Obama
Republican +0.5

General Election: Perry vs. Obama
Obama +4.0

General Election: Romney vs. Obama
Obama +0.9

General Election: Paul vs. Obama
Obama +3.3

General Election: Bachmann vs. Obama
Obama +9.8

General Election: Palin vs. Obama
Obama +13.0

General Election: Gingrich vs. Obama
Obama +14.5

General Election: Cain vs. Obama
Obama +10.0

General Election: Huntsman vs. Obama
Obama +11.0

I can't wait to see how Mr. Generic does in the debates.

[AMDScooter]

See you have to understand, deficit spending is OK when you have a president who you like. It's also OK apparently to the tune of about 10 trillion in debt, but once you hit that 12 trillion number and there is a new guy in the WH who you don't like, deficit spending CANNOT and WILL NOT happen. Not unless they can gut medicare. Then they are perfectly fine with deficit spending to the tune of about another 10 trillion. No worries that the poverty levels and income gap are the highest they have been in decades. We need to KEEP giving rich people MORE money and take MORE away from people who NEED assistance. Because that is what Jesus would do.

See my avatar to sum up my thoughts.

Last time I checked the SCOAMF™ in the WH racked up more debt in less than 3 years than GWB did in 8. I seem to remember sumtin about him cutting the deficit in half... turns out "just words" are enough placebo for some.

The fact he is orders of magnitude worse than any of his predecessors has nothing to do with it.. apparently we're all just racists. Lemme guess.. givem a chance? Even though he had full control of the entire gubberment for 2 years? How big a blank check you guys think the populace needs to hand over to your clueless novelty prezident?

Gut medicare? I seem to remember not to long ago someone "appropriated" $500 billion from medicare and counted it as both savings and funding to "cook the books" for a health care bill that was to save us all. Don't remember a lot of opposition to that act of Medicare piracy though.

HHS Secretary Sebelius admits to double-counting in Obamacare budget

Poverty levels? The SCOAMF™ in the WH ain't scoring too well there either..

Soaring Poverty Casts Spotlight on ‘Lost Decade’


Income gap? Well when your legislative agenda fails to deliver on every font... class warfare is as classic a fall back position as any. Because what we really need is moar gubberment payoffs.... seeing as they have worked out so well up to this point.

[otoc]

Last time I checked the SCOAMF™ in the WH racked up more debt in less than 3 years than GWB did in 8. I seem to remember sumtin about him cutting the deficit in half... turns out "just words" are enough placebo for some.

hmmm, Bush didn't sign the 2009 budget in 2008? What's your point scooter, that the GOp administration broke the law?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Un...federal_budget

With projected receipts less than projected outlays, the budget proposed by President Bush predicts a net deficit of approximately $400 billion dollars, adding to a United States governmental debt of about $11.4 trillion. Actual tax receipts totaled approximately $2.1 trillion - significantly less than the $2.7 trillion expected. The actual deficit in 2009 was $1.4 trillion.[1]

So the 2009 Bush deficit was really 1 trillion dollars with .4 trillion added by Obama for relief due to the worst recession sine the great depression. Nice try...

Gut medicare? I seem to remember not to long ago someone "appropriated" $500 billion from medicare and counted it as both savings and funding to "cook the books" for a health care bill that was to save us all. Don't remember a lot of opposition to that act of Medicare piracy though.

lol, savings reforms brought on by bad spending in Medicaid is now gutting Medicaid even though you have nothing to offer as examples where there have been coverage issues? Nother good one.

HHS Secretary Sebelius admits to double-counting in Obamacare budget

Miss the update at the end?

UPDATE: When contacted by The Daily Caller, Richard Sorian, Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs had this to say:
“The scoring of the Affordable Care Act is entirely consistent with how legislation has been scored for the 30 years, under Presidents of both parties, and Congresses of both parties. Savings in programs like Medicare and Social Security are scored as improving the solvency of those programs and reducing the deficit.”

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2011/03/04/hh...#ixzz1Y2YH3g3J

Poverty levels? The SCOAMF™ in the WH ain't scoring too well there either..

Soaring Poverty Casts Spotlight on ‘Lost Decade’

seems like the trend started way before Obama dude.

Income gap? Well when your legislative agenda fails to deliver on every font... class warfare is as classic a fall back position as any. Because what we really need is moar gubberment payoffs.... seeing as they have worked out so well up to this point.

What bull. It's a fact that the upper 1% has seen after tax income increases of close to 300% over the last 30 years while the middle and lower class has hardly kept up with inflation during the same time. There's your class warfare.

[otoc]

See my avatar to sum up my thoughts.

lol, See my avatar and response to scooter to sum up mine about all this nonsense about trying to transfer 1 Trillion in debt in 2009 by Bush over to Obama while ignoring the severity of the recession, debt, responses, Medicare budget methods that are OK when their party is in power but outrageous when they aren't in power, the parity of after tax income changes over the last 30 years, or assigning the last decade of poverty changes to this administration. Gotta love the onesided viewpoints around here. No wonder they have to resort to simpleton name calling. The facts are too hard to digest.

[Dutchcedar]

See you have to understand, deficit spending is OK when you have a president who you like. It's also OK apparently to the tune of about 10 trillion in debt, but once you hit that 12 trillion number and there is a new guy in the WH who you don't like, deficit spending CANNOT and WILL NOT happen. Not unless they can gut medicare. Then they are perfectly fine with deficit spending to the tune of about another 10 trillion. No worries that the poverty levels and income gap are the highest they have been in decades. We need to KEEP giving rich people MORE money and take MORE away from people who NEED assistance. Because that is what Jesus would do.

See my avatar to sum up my thoughts.

This is curious... I'm not sure if I'm reading frustration or sarcasm.

You remember a lot of us balking at Bush's spending, so I won't take your comments on what Bush spent as something we conservatives went all in on. But to criticize Boosh for deficit spending, then pivoting to support Obambi for doing it a much larger scale is just plain weird. Illogical.

Cutting Medicare. Forgive me, but I confuse Medicare and Medicaid a lot. I do know that Obambi whacked one of 'em to the tune of $500 billion. That's 1000 scamalicious solar panel factories.

Give rich people money? Gads. Do you really believe this? I mean, really? When you prepare your taxes and fill in that line about mortgage interest deductions, do you really think you're filing for a present from the government?

Take money from poor people? This is more ridiculous than the giving rich people money line. Here's your food stamps Mr. Poor Person, in exchange for what we took from you when we taxed your smokes. C'mon man.

Jesus. WTF do you know about him? I ask that because if you knew shit from shinola about him you'd be screaming about Obambi's plans to eliminate charitable deductions from the tax code. You know, those charitable deductions Jesus people use to offset the money they give to the poor people you're so danged worried about.

I dunno. I'm gonna grab another cup of coffee, 'cause what you've said is very confusing to me.