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  1. #46
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    Re: Hillary Clinton Wins 2016, 2020. Updated with Electoral Map!

    I didn't turn 21 until 1969 so I got screwed the first presidential election I got to vote was 1972, 24 years old. That's ok I think the minimum voting age should be 40 it took me that long to grow up...

    2 for 12 all the rest were awful. 2 good ones out of 12 that's not exactly a Major League Baseball batting average. The goods ones where the same president twice... Hint...

    Richard M. Nixon
    George McGovern
    John G. Schmitz Republican
    Democratic
    American 52024
    17
    0 47,169,911
    29,170,383
    1,099,482 Spiro T. Agnew—R
    Sargent Shriver—D
    Thomas J. Anderson—A
    1976 Jimmy Carter
    Gerald R. Ford
    Eugene J. McCarthy Democratic
    Republican
    Independent 297
    24025
    0 40,830,763
    39,147,973
    756,631 Walter F. Mondale—D
    Robert J. Dole—R
    None
    1980 Ronald Reagan
    Jimmy Carter
    John B. Anderson Republican
    Democratic
    Independent 489
    49
    0 43,899,248
    36,481,435
    5,719,437 George Bush—R
    Walter F. Mondale—D
    Patrick J. Lucey—I
    1984 Ronald Reagan
    Walter F. Mondale Republican
    Democratic 525
    13 54,455,075
    37,577,185 George Bush—R
    Geraldine A. Ferraro—D
    1988 George H. Bush
    Michael S. Dukakis Republican
    Democratic 426
    11126 48,886,097
    41,809,074 J. Danforth Quayle—R
    Lloyd Bentsen—D
    1992 William J. Clinton
    George H. Bush
    H. Ross Perot Democratic
    Republican
    Independent 370
    168
    0 44,909,889
    39,104,545
    19,742,267 Albert A. Gore, J.—D
    J. Danforth Quayle—R
    James B. Stockdale—I
    1996 William J. Clinton
    Robert J. Dole
    H. Ross Perot Democratic
    Republican
    Reform Party27 379
    159
    0 47,402,357
    39,198,755
    8,085,402 Albert A. Gore, Jr.—D
    Jack F. Kemp—R
    Pat Choate—RP27
    2000 George W. Bush
    Albert A. Gore
    Ralph Nader Republican
    Democratic
    Green Party 271
    26628
    0 50,456,002
    50,999,897
    2,882,955 Richard B. Cheney—R
    Joseph I. Lieberman—D
    Winona LaDuke—GP
    2004 George W. Bush
    John F. Kerry Republican
    Democratic 286
    25129 62,028,285
    59,028,109 Richard B. Cheney—R
    John Edwards—D
    2008 Barack Obama
    John McCain Democratic
    Republican 365
    173 66,862,039
    58,319,442 Joseph Biden—D
    Sarah Palin—R
    2012 Barack Obama
    Mitt Romney Democratic
    Republican 332
    206 62,616,535
    59,090,075 Joseph Biden—D
    Paul Ryan—R
    1. Only 10 states participated in the election. The New York legislature chose no electors, and North Carolina and Rhode Island had not yet ratified the Constitution.
    2. As Jefferson and Burr were tied, the House of Representatives chose the president. In a vote by states, 10 votes were cast for Jefferson, 4 for Burr; 2 votes were not cast.
    3. As no candidate had an electoral-vote majority, the House of Representatives chose the president from the first three. In a vote by states, 13 votes were cast for Adams, 7 for Jackson, and 4 for Crawford.
    4. The Antimasonic Party on Sept. 26, 1831, was the first party to hold a nominating convention to choose candidates for president and vice president.
    5. As Johnson did not have an electoral-vote majority, the Senate chose him 33–14 over Granger, the others being legally out of the race.
    6. Harrison died April 4, 1841, and Tyler succeeded him April 6.
    7. Taylor died July 9, 1850, and Fillmore succeeded him July 10.
    8. Also known as the Know-Nothing Party.
    9. Lincoln died April 15, 1865, and Johnson succeeded him the same day.
    10. Name adopted by the Republican National Convention of 1864. Johnson was a War Democrat.
    11. 23 Southern electoral votes were excluded.
    12. Greeley died Nov. 29, 1872, before his 66 electors voted; 63 of Greeley's votes were scattered among four of the other candidates.
    13. Hayes was chosen by a special electoral commission since initially neither candidate had the requisite 185 electoral votes.
    14. Garfield died Sept. 19, 1881, and Arthur succeeded him Sept. 20.
    15. Members of People's Party were called Populists.
    16. McKinley died Sept. 14, 1901, and Roosevelt succeeded him the same day.
    17. James S. Sherman, Republican candidate for vice president, died Oct. 30, 1912, and the Republican electoral votes were cast for Butler.
    18. Harding died Aug. 2, 1923, and Coolidge succeeded him Aug.
    They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.
    ~ Benjamin Franklin

  2. #47
    Joined
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    Re: Hillary Clinton Wins 2016, 2020. Updated with Electoral Map!

    Quote Originally Posted by JustinC939 View Post
    Bring and bushy tailed as usual I see that being Trump Supporter has had an effect on your communication skills. I recall having articulate and thoughtful discussions with you.
    I'm here every day. You show up once a year to make a prediction that no one gives a shit about because you're never here anyway. Also, I just can't stomach talking to a beta male Hillary voter like yourself anymore Justin. So yeah, my conversations with you will always be just a few words from now on because I'd rather not waste my time talking to a SJW.
    Not a GoodWhite.

  3. #48
    Joined
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    Obamaland
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    Re: Hillary Clinton Wins 2016, 2020. Updated with Electoral Map!

    Quote Originally Posted by kbohip View Post
    I'm here every day. You show up once a year to make a prediction that no one gives a shit about because you're never here anyway. Also, I just can't stomach talking to a beta male Hillary voter like yourself anymore Justin. So yeah, my conversations with you will always be just a few words from now on because I'd rather not waste my time talking to a SJW.
    Thread is four pages long..... An awful lot of nothing here for nobody to give a shit a bout lol.


    Quote Originally Posted by Dutchcedar View Post
    You've predicted three elections (here). Dang, you're awesome. That's like three IN A ROW!!!

    I think you get a star for that.
    Soon to be four in a row....

    Which is better than ya'lls track record...... Remember unskewed polls?


    As another election draws near; the G.O.P. are yet again filled with a stupid confidence that the they will win the White House. What they don't realize about people like Trump, Carson, and Cruz is that their rhetoric only resonates within an echo chamber, but not the American people. They live in an illusion of falsehood and distorted truth and only seek information and opinions that confirm these beliefs and instantly reject anything that contradicts them because only their opinions matter. Their notion of freedom is freedom for themselves and those alike to them, but not the rest of the country which has changed.
    These are the reasons why the G.O.P is set to lose in 2016. And when that happens, rest assured that they will have myriad of conspiracy theories blaming everyone and everything from the liberal media, to Oprah, to welfare moms, and pretty much everyone but their own disgusting selves.



  4. #49
    Joined
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    Kern River Valley, CA
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    Re: Hillary Clinton Wins 2016, 2020. Updated with Electoral Map!

    Quote Originally Posted by JustinC939 View Post
    Thread is four pages long..... An awful lot of nothing here for nobody to give a shit a bout lol.




    Soon to be four in a row....

    Which is better than ya'lls track record...... Remember unskewed polls?
    Au contraire this is the most important election in my lifetime the future of this country is in great jeopardy. It's quite unfortunate you let poll watching and prognosticating interfere, it's a prophesy.

    Four in a role you must be one of TicToc's statisticians...
    They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.
    ~ Benjamin Franklin

  5. #50
    Joined
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    Re: Hillary Clinton Wins 2016, 2020. Updated with Electoral Map!

    I think when a lot of people get inside the voting booth where nobody is watching they will think about Hillary's long history of lying and double standard lawlessness. They will crossover to Trump or Gary Johnson. If the election isn't fixed the Beast is in for a long night.

    Toss-up...
    They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.
    ~ Benjamin Franklin

  6. #51
    Joined
    Oct 2001
    Posts
    752

    Re: Hillary Clinton Wins 2016, 2020. Updated with Electoral Map!

    when the election is over and the republicans have lost everything. How are you we going to make sure the right leaning members here are "safe". even though i fundamentally disagree with the right you are still my countrymen and women
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  7. #52
    Joined
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    Re: Hillary Clinton Wins 2016, 2020. Updated with Electoral Map!

    Quote Originally Posted by Maxius View Post
    when the election is over and the republicans have lost everything. How are you we going to make sure the right leaning members here are "safe". even though i fundamentally disagree with the right you are still my countrymen and women
    I'll bet most Deplorables and irredeemables are gun owners they'll be safer than the politically correct left non-assault weapon anti-gunners.
    They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.
    ~ Benjamin Franklin

  8. #53
    Joined
    Dec 2003
    Location
    Obamaland
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    35
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    9,534

    Re: Hillary Clinton Wins 2016, 2020. Updated with Electoral Map!

    Updated map with prediction details. See you next Wednesday


    As another election draws near; the G.O.P. are yet again filled with a stupid confidence that the they will win the White House. What they don't realize about people like Trump, Carson, and Cruz is that their rhetoric only resonates within an echo chamber, but not the American people. They live in an illusion of falsehood and distorted truth and only seek information and opinions that confirm these beliefs and instantly reject anything that contradicts them because only their opinions matter. Their notion of freedom is freedom for themselves and those alike to them, but not the rest of the country which has changed.
    These are the reasons why the G.O.P is set to lose in 2016. And when that happens, rest assured that they will have myriad of conspiracy theories blaming everyone and everything from the liberal media, to Oprah, to welfare moms, and pretty much everyone but their own disgusting selves.



  9. #54
    Joined
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    Kern River Valley, CA
    Age
    69
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    14,048

    Re: Hillary Clinton Wins 2016, 2020. Updated with Electoral Map!

    As another election draws near; the G.O.P. are yet again filled with a stupid confidence that the they will win the White House. What they don't realize about people like Trump, Carson, and Cruz is that their rhetoric only resonates within an echo chamber, but not the American people. They live in an illusion of falsehood and distorted truth and only seek information and opinions that confirm these beliefs and instantly reject anything that contradicts them because only their opinions matter. Their notion of freedom is freedom for themselves and those alike to them, but not the rest of the country which has changed.
    These are the reasons why the D.N.C. is set to lose in 2016. And when that happens, rest assured that they will have myriad of conspiracy theories blaming everyone and everything from the liberal media, to Oprah, to welfare moms, and pretty much everyone but their own disgusting selves.
    There ya go fixed for ya...

    Your prediction...

    'Bold talk for a one-eyed'

    Last edited by tucker; 11-06-2016 at 05:47 PM.
    They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.
    ~ Benjamin Franklin

  10. #55
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    Re: Hillary Clinton Wins 2016, 2020. Updated with Electoral Map!

    RCP rates 14 as toss ups and you have HRC-9 of them and Trump-4 of them.
    They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.
    ~ Benjamin Franklin

  11. #56
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    Re: Hillary Clinton Wins 2016, 2020. Updated with Electoral Map!

    Quote Originally Posted by tucker View Post
    RCP rates 14 as toss ups and you have HRC-9 of them and Trump-4 of them.
    I didn't just mirror the current RCP map in which the no toss up map shows 297/241 Clinton. It's based on the general polling history of each state, demographics (a.k.a. stereotypes), and the 2012 election. Like I said in my last post. Hillary didn't significantly drop in the polls much from her median position for the month of October whereas Trump gained an average of 2-3 points from his median position in the polls and the swing state polling reflects this trend. It is not uncommon for races to tighten in the final days and this is what happened in 2012 (and 2004 to a lesser extent). What this is from is the independents/undecideds/third party (the neithers) supporters buckling toward the major party candidates in accordance to their own political leanings. In the final days of polling in 2012 Obama was beating Romney by only 0.7 points with about 3.1% of the electorate backing the neithers, but he ended up winning by 3.9 points and only 1.7% of the electorate backing the neithers. The 2012 race was very tight during the month of October and Romney had the lead in the polls throughout most of that month. Obama started out with a 4 point lead over Romney, but the polls shifted after poor debate performance at which point Obama's numbers stayed pretty much the same for the last 3 weeks while Romney made slow gains eventually peaking at a 0.9% lead. This represents the right leaning neithers shifting toward Romney. The tightned race and the threat of a Romney eventually caused the left leaning neithers (Obama was then polling lower in popularity than he is now) to shift toward Obama.

    This year we have about 8.5% of the electorate supporting the neithers in contrast to the 5.1% they had at this exact point in 2012 so there is a greater element of uncertainty here but..... During the month of October Trump bottomed out at 41.4% and now stands at 44.8% which represents a 3.4% increase for trump. However Clinton maxed out at 49% and now polls at 46.6% representing a 2.4% loss for Clinton. Incidentally we then had 9% support for the neithers and we now have about 8% so based on this it can be surmised that 1% of the neithers have shifted toward Trump and the other 2% have switched sides. What is also interesting is that Trump's barley broke the 45% threshold (45.3% max) since August 1st and he is only 0.1% point higher today than where he was on 10/1.

    What all of this is telling me is that the people have essentially had their minds made up since the primaries ended and most of these fluctuations are just chatter. In the end, the neithers will decide this election and polling at 8% at this stage represents a higher degree of uncertainty so you have to figure out where they stand to make an accurate prediction. Neither candidate is well liked, but poll after poll shows that Trump is the more disliked of the two. His supporters are very enthusiastic about him, but he doesn't get much love outside of that. After a bad month of polling for Trump, it would be expected that the right leaning neithers would begin to support him, but he has only seen an estimated 1% support while the remaining 8% are still holding out. This tells me that his support from this group is weak at best. So now we wait for the other shoe to drop and in this case it would be the left leaning neithers who will support Clinton because they are now faced with the threat of a seemingly close election.

    Things aren't great and the people aren't happy with their choices, but Clinton has incumbency on her side. The great recession has ended and people are doing better now than they were in 2009. Things could be better, but they are okay for now. That's what Clinton represents.

    Trump represents uncertainty. Things need to be pretty bad for people to choose uncertainty and they aren't that bad.


    As another election draws near; the G.O.P. are yet again filled with a stupid confidence that the they will win the White House. What they don't realize about people like Trump, Carson, and Cruz is that their rhetoric only resonates within an echo chamber, but not the American people. They live in an illusion of falsehood and distorted truth and only seek information and opinions that confirm these beliefs and instantly reject anything that contradicts them because only their opinions matter. Their notion of freedom is freedom for themselves and those alike to them, but not the rest of the country which has changed.
    These are the reasons why the G.O.P is set to lose in 2016. And when that happens, rest assured that they will have myriad of conspiracy theories blaming everyone and everything from the liberal media, to Oprah, to welfare moms, and pretty much everyone but their own disgusting selves.



  12. #57
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    Re: Hillary Clinton Wins 2016, 2020. Updated with Electoral Map!

    ^ The longest political prediction nobody is going to read...

    Ya know political corruption is like a untreated cancer it spreads and spreads throughout the government until it reaches hospice stage. Shorty there after comes the death comma. Just like you and your ilk want the United States of America will be buried deep and replaced by a Hemispheric Union of corruption and communism. Not long after you and your ilk will have the Globalist world you want... The Garden of Eden and 75 virgins...

    For your own sake if you're ever unfortunate enough to get cancer please don't ignore it. It's an awfully nasty way to die. You probably already knew that just a reminder... Half your countrymen are going to suffer because you chose to ignore the cancer within..

    I don't know what word this defines but it sounds much like what I've seen for the last 7+++ years.

    'The word origin says it all: traditorem is the Latin word for "betrayer." Liar? Yes. Backstabber? Yes. True friend? Heavens, no. Traitors betray the trust of those who have faith in them or believe their promises.'
    They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.
    ~ Benjamin Franklin

  13. #58
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    Re: Hillary Clinton Wins 2016, 2020. Updated with Electoral Map!

    Quote Originally Posted by tucker View Post
    ^ The longest political prediction nobody is going to read...
    Yeah, I really should have known better. You guys really aren't into facts. That's honestly why I'm such a smug asshole toward this forum. There is no debate here, just angry old people getting angry and confirming their prejudices. Try stepping out of that bubble and educating yourself.


    As another election draws near; the G.O.P. are yet again filled with a stupid confidence that the they will win the White House. What they don't realize about people like Trump, Carson, and Cruz is that their rhetoric only resonates within an echo chamber, but not the American people. They live in an illusion of falsehood and distorted truth and only seek information and opinions that confirm these beliefs and instantly reject anything that contradicts them because only their opinions matter. Their notion of freedom is freedom for themselves and those alike to them, but not the rest of the country which has changed.
    These are the reasons why the G.O.P is set to lose in 2016. And when that happens, rest assured that they will have myriad of conspiracy theories blaming everyone and everything from the liberal media, to Oprah, to welfare moms, and pretty much everyone but their own disgusting selves.



  14. #59
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    13,489

    Re: Hillary Clinton Wins 2016, 2020. Updated with Electoral Map!

    Quote Originally Posted by JustinC939 View Post
    Yeah, I really should have known better. You guys really aren't into facts. That's honestly why I'm such a smug asshole toward this forum. There is no debate here, just angry old people getting angry and confirming their prejudices. Try stepping out of that bubble and educating yourself.
    But you're just a white liberal male. No one else gives a shit what you say, so why should we?
    Not a GoodWhite.

  15. #60
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    Re: Hillary Clinton Wins 2016, 2020. Updated with Electoral Map!

    Quote Originally Posted by kbohip View Post
    But you're just a white liberal male. No one else gives a shit what you say, so why should we?
    You care enough to keep chiming in here, and I enjoy tormenting the people here . Really looking forward to the spectacle on Wednesday, it'll make for some quality entertainment for sure.


    As another election draws near; the G.O.P. are yet again filled with a stupid confidence that the they will win the White House. What they don't realize about people like Trump, Carson, and Cruz is that their rhetoric only resonates within an echo chamber, but not the American people. They live in an illusion of falsehood and distorted truth and only seek information and opinions that confirm these beliefs and instantly reject anything that contradicts them because only their opinions matter. Their notion of freedom is freedom for themselves and those alike to them, but not the rest of the country which has changed.
    These are the reasons why the G.O.P is set to lose in 2016. And when that happens, rest assured that they will have myriad of conspiracy theories blaming everyone and everything from the liberal media, to Oprah, to welfare moms, and pretty much everyone but their own disgusting selves.



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